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| Sunday, 08/03/2025 6:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 PHO | 627 | 16-11 | -10 | -11 | -650 | -6.5 |
 CHI | 628 | 7-20 | 166.5 | 165 | +450 | 83.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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WNBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| PHO | 81 | -10 | -11 | |
| CHI | 69 | CHI (+1) | ||
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| PHO | 85 | 43 | 31-70 | 43.9% | 10-28 | 35.3% | 13-17 | 78.5% | 41 | 8 | 12 | ||||
| CHI | 78 | CHI (+6.5) | Un (+2.8) | 39 | CHI (+4) | Un (+1.7) | 28-65 | 43.0% | 7-20 | 35.0% | 15-18 | 79.1% | 45 | 9 | 17 |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Chicago covered the spread 578 times, while Phoenix covered the spread 392 times. Edge against the spread=Chicago. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 546 games went under the total, while 429 games went over the total. Edge against the total=Under. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix won the game straight up 678 times, while Chicago won 292 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Chicago covered the first half line 611 times, while Phoenix covered the first half line 389 times. Edge against the first half line=Chicago. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 568 games went under the first half total, while 432 games went over the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Under. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Chicago covered the 4 point teaser line 699 times, and failed to cover 275 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the 4 point teaser line 504 times, and failed to cover 473 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 455 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 638 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 337 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Phoenix. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Phoenix on the money line when they allow 76 to 81 points in a game. Phoenix record since the 2024 season: 12-3 (80%) with an average money line of -115. (+14.6 unit$, ROI=84.9%) The average score of these games was Mercury 81.3, Opponents 79.2. |
| Bet on Phoenix on the money line when their opponents make 29% to 35% of their 3 pointers in a game. Phoenix record during the 2025 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average money line of -201. (+12.0 unit$, ROI=59.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 90.5, Opponents 80.7. |
| Trends Favoring Chicago. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Phoenix in home games on the money line when they make 29% to 35% of their three point attempts in a game. Phoenix record since the 2024 season: 2-8 (20%) with an average money line of -140. (-14.0 unit$, ROI=-99.6%) The average score of these games was Mercury 80.1, Opponents 87.4. |
| Bet against Phoenix in home games on the money line in games where they force 13 to 18 turnovers. Phoenix record since the 2023 season: 3-15 (17%) with an average money line of +132. (-18.9 unit$, ROI=-104.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 76.7, Opponents 84.5. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the 1st half total in Phoenix games when they make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 8-1 (89%) with an average 1st half over/under of 81.5. (+6.9 unit$, ROI=69.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 42.4, Opponents 45.4. |
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.