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| Wednesday, 07/30/2025 7:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 PHO | 601 | 16-10 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -165 | -2 |
 IND | 602 | 16-12 | 163 | 167.5 | +145 | 84.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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WNBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| PHO | 83 | -3.5 | ||
| IND | 83 | -2 | IND (+5.5) | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| PHO | 81 | 41 | 29-68 | 43.0% | 9-28 | 33.0% | 13-17 | 77.2% | 41 | 7 | 13 | ||||
| IND | 82 | IND (+4.5) | Un (+4.9) | 41 | IND (+3) | Un (+2.7) | 30-66 | 44.4% | 8-24 | 33.9% | 15-18 | 79.6% | 44 | 8 | 14 |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the spread 628 times, while Phoenix covered the spread 372 times. Edge against the spread=Indiana. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 625 games went under the total, while 375 games went over the total. Edge against the total=Under. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Indiana won the game straight up 535 times, while Phoenix won 440 times. Edge on the money line=Indiana. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the first half line 582 times, while Phoenix covered the first half line 384 times. Edge against the first half line=Indiana. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 606 games went under the first half total, while 394 games went over the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Under. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the 4 point teaser line 729 times, and failed to cover 271 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the 4 point teaser line 465 times, and failed to cover 535 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 477 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 523 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 711 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 289 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Phoenix. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Phoenix on the money line when their opponents make 29% to 35% of their 3 pointers in a game. Phoenix record during the 2025 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average money line of -201. (+12.0 unit$, ROI=59.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 90.5, Opponents 80.7. |
| Bet against Indiana in away games on the money line in games where they commit 13 to 18 turnovers. Indiana record during the 2025 season: 1-5 (17%) with an average money line of -319. (-17.7 unit$, ROI=-92.4%) The average score of these games was Fever 80.7, Opponents 81.7. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the 1st half total in Phoenix away games in games where they attempt 62 to 68 shots. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average 1st half over/under of 81.5. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Mercury 45.3, Opponents 46.3. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Phoenix games when they make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 8-1 (89%) with an average 1st half over/under of 81.5. (+6.9 unit$, ROI=69.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 42.4, Opponents 45.4. |
| Trends Favoring Under. | |
|---|---|
| Bet under the total in Indiana away games in games attempting around the same number of free throws as opponents. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average over/under of 169.9. (+7.9 unit$, ROI=71.8%) The average score of these games was Fever 78.5, Opponents 80.9. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Indiana away games in games attempting around the same number of free throws as opponents. The 1st half Under's record since the 2024 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average 1st half over/under of 85.5. (+7.9 unit$, ROI=71.8%) The average score of these games was Fever 35.1, Opponents 39.3. |
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.