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Friday, 05/09/2025 7:30 PM (ET) 
Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Indiana leads series 2 games to 0.
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 CLE
 Cleveland (1)
56368-20-1.5-2.5-140-1.5
 IND
 Indiana (4)
56456-33230229.5+120115.5

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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 CLE Cleveland124-2.5
 IND Indiana1220 IND (+2.5)

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 CLE Cleveland116Ov (+3.3)59Ov (+2)42-9246.4%15-4335.3%16-2177.7%541312
 IND Indiana117IND (+2.5) 59IND (+1.5) 43-9047.8%14-3737.2%16-2080.3%521212

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the spread 558 times, while Cleveland covered the spread 442 times.
Edge against the spread=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, 583 games went over the total, while 417 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana won the game straight up 494 times, while Cleveland won 479 times.
Edge on the money line=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the first half line 545 times, while Cleveland covered the first half line 455 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 571 games went over the first half total, while 429 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the 4 point teaser line 639 times, and failed to cover 361 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the 4 point teaser line 524 times, and failed to cover 476 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 675 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 325 failed to go over.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 508 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 492 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Cleveland.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game.
Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 19-3 (86%) with an average money line of -428. (+16.2 unit$, ROI=17.2%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 121.1, Opponents 110.9.
Trends Favoring Over.
Bet over the total in Cleveland games when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game.
The Over's record since the 2023 season: 35-8 (81%) with an average over/under of 225.6. (+26.2 unit$, ROI=54.1%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 115.9, Opponents 117.7.
Bet over the total in Cleveland games when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game.
The Over's record during the 2025 season: 20-4 (83%) with an average over/under of 231.3. (+15.6 unit$, ROI=59.1%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 124.6, Opponents 118.7.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.