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| Monday, 05/12/2025 7:00 PM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL Playoffs - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Carolina leads series 2 games to 1. | |||||||
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 WAS | 75 | 56-24-10, 122 pts. | THOMPSON | +190 | 5.5e-10 | +185 | 5.5e-10 |
 CAR | 76 | 53-31-6, 112 pts. | ANDERSEN | -230 | 5.5u-20 | -225 | 5.5u-20 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| WAS | 3.14 | THOMPSON | +185 | 35.1% | +119 | 45.7% | WAS (+10.6%) |
| CAR | 3.47 | ANDERSEN | -225 | 69.2% | -119 | 54.3% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| WAS | THOMPSON | 1.36 | +185 | 35.1% | +222 | 31.1% | 5.5e-10 | 3.6 | 26 | 3-0 | 3 | ||
| CAR | ANDERSEN | 2.22 | -225 | 69.2% | -222 | 68.9% | 5.5u-20 | 3.6 | UN (+1.9) | 34 | 4-1 | 4 | |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Washington | |
|---|---|
 | Bet on Washington on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Washington record during the 2025 season: 38-4 (90%) with an average money line of -140. (+35.2 unit$, ROI=59.8%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.5, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet on Washington on the money line when they allow 2 goals. Washington record since the 2024 season: 29-7 (81%) with an average money line of -122. (+22.1 unit$, ROI=50.3%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.5, Opponents 2.0. |
| Bet against Carolina on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Carolina record during the 2025 season: 5-27 (16%) with an average money line of -185. (-45.5 unit$, ROI=-77.0%) The average score of these games was Hurricanes 1.3, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet against Carolina on the money line when they score 2 goals. Carolina record since the 2024 season: 7-22 (24%) with an average money line of -167. (-29.1 unit$, ROI=-60.2%) The average score of these games was Hurricanes 2.0, Opponents 3.3. |
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| Trends Favoring Carolina | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Washington on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Washington record during the 2025 season: 3-25 (11%) with an average money line of -118. (-30.7 unit$, ROI=-93.3%) The average score of these games was Capitals 1.3, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet against Washington on the money line when they score 1 or less goals. Washington record during the 2025 season: 1-15 (6%) with an average money line of -106. (-18.3 unit$, ROI=-108.3%) The average score of these games was Capitals 0.8, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet on Carolina on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Carolina record during the 2025 season: 40-1 (98%) with an average money line of -217. (+38.2 unit$, ROI=42.9%) The average score of these games was Hurricanes 3.8, Opponents 1.3. |
| Bet on Carolina on the money line when they allow 1 or less goals. Carolina record during the 2025 season: 24-0 (100%) with an average money line of -215. (+24.1 unit$, ROI=46.6%) The average score of these games was Hurricanes 3.5, Opponents 0.8. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Washington games when they score 1 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 14-2 (88%) with an average over/under of 5.9, money line=-107. (+12.1 unit$, ROI=70.6%) The average score of these games was Capitals 0.8, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet under the total in Washington games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 29-9 (76%) with an average over/under of 5.9, money line=-110. (+20.0 unit$, ROI=43.4%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.5, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet under the total in Washington games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 21-5 (81%) with an average over/under of 5.9, money line=-108. (+15.9 unit$, ROI=52.2%) The average score of these games was Capitals 1.3, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet under the total in Carolina games when they allow 1 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 23-1 (96%) with an average over/under of 5.8, money line=-109. (+22.4 unit$, ROI=85.3%) The average score of these games was Hurricanes 3.5, Opponents 0.8. |
| Bet under the total in Carolina games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 24-4 (86%) with an average over/under of 5.9, money line=-112. (+19.4 unit$, ROI=53.8%) The average score of these games was Hurricanes 1.3, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet under the total in Carolina games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 29-8 (78%) with an average over/under of 5.9, money line=-108. (+20.6 unit$, ROI=46.4%) The average score of these games was Hurricanes 3.8, Opponents 1.3. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.