More NHL Games |
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| Sunday, 04/20/2025 7:00 PM | |||||||
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| NHL Playoffs - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 | |||||||
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 OTT | 31 | 47-32-9, 103 pts. | ULLMARK | +135 | 5.5o-15 | +145 | 5.5o-20 |
 TOR | 32 | 58-27-5, 121 pts. | STOLARZ | -155 | 5.5u-05 | -165 | 5.5e-10 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| OTT | 3.54 | ULLMARK | +145 | 40.8% | +138 | 42.0% | OTT (+1.2%) |
| TOR | 4.29 | STOLARZ | -165 | 62.3% | -138 | 58.0% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| OTT | ULLMARK | 1.56 | +145 | 40.8% | +348 | 22.3% | 5.5o-20 | 4.9 | 31 | 4-1 | 3 | ||
| TOR | STOLARZ | 3.35 | -165 | 62.3% | -348 | 77.7% | TOR (+15.4%) | 5.5e-10 | 4.9 | UN (+0.6) | 34 | 3-1 | 6 |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Toronto | |
|---|---|
 | Bet against Ottawa on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Ottawa record during the 2025 season: 6-28 (18%) with an average money line of -109. (-27.9 unit$, ROI=-75.5%) The average score of these games was Senators 1.3, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet on Toronto on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Toronto record during the 2025 season: 32-4 (89%) with an average money line of -166. (+28.1 unit$, ROI=47.1%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 3.3, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet on Toronto in home games on the money line when they allow 2 goals. Toronto record during the 2025 season: 10-0 (100%) with an average money line of -204. (+10.0 unit$, ROI=49.0%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 4.3, Opponents 2.0. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Ottawa games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 46-14 (77%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-107. (+31.4 unit$, ROI=44.4%) The average score of these games was Senators 1.4, Opponents 3.5. |
| Bet under the total in Toronto games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 30-6 (83%) with an average over/under of 6.1, money line=-114. (+23.5 unit$, ROI=57.3%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 3.3, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet under the total in Toronto away or ne games when they get 32 to 36 shots on goal. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-118. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=84.5%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 2.2, Opponents 2.2. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.