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Thursday, 05/15/2025 8:30 PM (ET) 
Western Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 6 - Oklahoma City leads series 3 games to 2.
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 OKC
 Oklahoma City (1)
50774-17-4.5-4.5-200-2.5
 DEN
 Denver (4)
50856-37219.5216.5+170109

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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒

NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 OKC Oklahoma City128-6-4.5OKC (+1.5)
 DEN Denver120 

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 OKC Oklahoma City119OKC (+4.5)Ov (+12.4)60OKC (+1.5)Ov (+5.8)44-9347.1%14-3937.0%16-2080.2%531310
 DEN Denver110 55 40-8746.2%12-3335.4%18-2474.8%541315

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the spread 612 times, while Denver covered the spread 388 times.
Edge against the spread=Oklahoma City.
In 1000 simulated games, 759 games went over the total, while 241 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City won the game straight up 684 times, while Denver won 291 times.
Edge on the money line=Oklahoma City.
In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the first half line 577 times, while Denver covered the first half line 423 times.
Edge against the first half line=Oklahoma City.
In 1000 simulated games, 664 games went over the first half total, while 313 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Denver covered the 4 point teaser line 494 times, and failed to cover 506 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the 4 point teaser line 684 times, and failed to cover 316 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 825 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 175 failed to go over.
Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, 323 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 677 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Denver.
Bet on Denver in home games on the money line when they score 109 to 114 points in a game.
Denver record since the 2023 season: 16-1 (94%) with an average money line of -279. (+15.4 unit$, ROI=32.5%)
The average score of these games was Nuggets 111.5, Opponents 101.5.
Trends Favoring Under.
Bet under the total in Denver away or neutral games when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 16-2 (89%) with an average over/under of 226.1. (+13.8 unit$, ROI=66.0%)
The average score of these games was Nuggets 109.3, Opponents 110.1.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.