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Tuesday, 05/13/2025 7:00 PM (ET) 
Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 5 - Indiana leads series 3 games to 1.
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 IND
 Indiana (4)
57957-34229.5230+220116
 CLE
 Cleveland (1)
58069-21-7.5-7-300-3.5

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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 IND Indiana122 IND (+3)
 CLE Cleveland124-4-7

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 IND Indiana115IND (+2)Ov (+4.1)58IND (+1.5)Ov (+1.3)42-9047.1%14-3736.7%16-2079.8%501112
 CLE Cleveland119 60 43-9147.3%15-4235.7%18-2478.3%561413

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the spread 543 times, while Cleveland covered the spread 427 times.
Edge against the spread=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, 576 games went over the total, while 405 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland won the game straight up 585 times, while Indiana won 388 times.
Edge on the money line=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the first half line 561 times, while Cleveland covered the first half line 439 times.
Edge against the first half line=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, 533 games went over the first half total, while 439 games went under the first half total.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the 4 point teaser line 520 times, and failed to cover 456 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the 4 point teaser line 644 times, and failed to cover 328 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 665 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 317 failed to go over.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 497 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 483 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Cleveland.
Bet against Indiana when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 5-22 (19%) ATS with an average line of -0.9. (-19.2 unit$, ROI=-64.6%).
The average score of these games was Pacers 113.0, Opponents 117.6.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game.
Cleveland record since the 2024 season: 27-4 (87%) with an average money line of -358. (+22.1 unit$, ROI=19.9%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 120.7, Opponents 107.2.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game.
Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 19-3 (86%) with an average money line of -428. (+16.2 unit$, ROI=17.2%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 121.1, Opponents 110.9.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Cleveland record since the 2024 season: 36-9 (80%) with an average money line of -341. (+25.6 unit$, ROI=16.7%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 116.0, Opponents 106.8.
Trends Favoring Over.
Bet over the total in Cleveland games when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game.
The Over's record since the 2023 season: 35-8 (81%) with an average over/under of 225.6. (+26.2 unit$, ROI=54.1%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 115.9, Opponents 117.7.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.