StatSharp Logo

More NBA Games

Left ArrowBy Time Current GamesLeft ArrowBy Game# 

Swipe left to see more →

Sunday, 05/04/2025 10:00 PM (ET) 
Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 IND
 Indiana (4)
54154-33226.5228.5+250115
 CLE
 Cleveland (1)
54268-18-7.5-7.5-330-4

Matchup Content Menu

Swipe left to see more →

Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒

NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

Swipe left to see more →

 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 IND Indiana119 
 CLE Cleveland127-10-7.5CLE (+2.5)

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

Swipe left to see more →

Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 IND Indiana115Ov (+8.6)58Ov (+4.5)43-9246.5%14-3936.0%16-1979.9%501111
 CLE Cleveland122CLE (+0.5) 62 45-9248.4%16-4337.9%16-2176.9%571413

Simulation Line Covers

Swipe left to see more →

The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the spread 521 times, while Indiana covered the spread 479 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 669 games went over the total, while 331 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland won the game straight up 639 times, while Indiana won 346 times.
Edge on the money line=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the first half line 485 times, while Indiana covered the first half line 479 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 629 games went over the first half total, while 344 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the 4 point teaser line 585 times, and failed to cover 415 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the 4 point teaser line 575 times, and failed to cover 425 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 754 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 246 failed to go over.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 417 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 583 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Indiana.
Bet on Indiana on the money line in games where they commit 12 or fewer turnovers.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 39-15 (72%) with an average money line of -204. (+29.9 unit$, ROI=27.1%)
The average score of these games was Pacers 120.1, Opponents 114.3.
Trends Favoring Cleveland.
Bet on Cleveland when they score 121 or more points in a game.
Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 35-11 (76%) ATS with an average line of -8.7. (+22.9 unit$, ROI=44.3%).
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 129.9, Opponents 113.6.
Bet against Indiana when they allow 121 or more points in a game.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 5-24 (17%) ATS with an average line of +0.4. (-21.4 unit$, ROI=-67.1%).
The average score of these games was Pacers 118.8, Opponents 128.0.
Bet against Indiana when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 5-21 (19%) ATS with an average line of -1.1. (-18.1 unit$, ROI=-63.3%).
The average score of these games was Pacers 113.3, Opponents 117.3.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game.
Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 14-2 (88%) with an average money line of -464. (+12.0 unit$, ROI=16.2%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 124.7, Opponents 108.8.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game.
Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 19-3 (86%) with an average money line of -428. (+16.2 unit$, ROI=17.2%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 121.1, Opponents 110.9.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Cleveland record since the 2024 season: 35-9 (80%) with an average money line of -344. (+24.6 unit$, ROI=16.2%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 115.8, Opponents 106.9.
Bet on Cleveland in home games on the 1st half line when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game.
Cleveland record on the 1st half line during the 2025 season: 14-0 (100%) with an average 1st half line of -6.0. (+14.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Cavaliers 64.8, Opponents 51.9.
Trends Favoring Over.
Bet over the total in Indiana games when they allow 121 or more points in a game.
The Over's record during the 2025 season: 23-5 (82%) with an average over/under of 234.7. (+17.5 unit$, ROI=54.9%)
The average score of these games was Pacers 118.8, Opponents 128.0.
Bet over the total in Cleveland games when they score 121 or more points in a game.
The Over's record during the 2025 season: 43-4 (91%) with an average over/under of 229.9. (+38.6 unit$, ROI=74.7%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 129.9, Opponents 113.6.
Bet over the 1st half total in Cleveland away or neutral games when they score 121 or more points in a game.
The 1st half Over's record since the 2024 season: 30-8 (79%) with an average 1st half over/under of 116.0. (+21.2 unit$, ROI=49.4%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 65.7, Opponents 55.8.
Bet over the 4 point teaser total in Cleveland games when they score 121 or more points in a game.
The Over 4 point teaser's record during the 2025 season: 46-1 (98%) with an average over teaser total of 225.9. (+44.9 unit$, ROI=86.8%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 129.9, Opponents 113.6.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.