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Wednesday, 04/30/2025 7:30 PM (ET) 
Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 5 - Golden State leads series 3 games to 1.
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 GSW
 Golden State (7)
50952-35204204+155103
 HOU
 Houston (2)
51053-33-4-4-175-2

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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 GSW Golden State120-1 GSW (+5)
 HOU Houston117-4

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 GSW Golden State112GSW (+4)Ov (+19.3)56GSW (+2)Ov (+9.4)39-8844.8%16-4336.6%17-2181.2%501213
 HOU Houston112 56 42-9146.5%13-3538.1%14-2070.2%581616

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Golden State covered the spread 577 times, while Houston covered the spread 408 times.
Edge against the spread=Golden State.
In 1000 simulated games, 874 games went over the total, while 111 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Golden State won the game straight up 500 times, while Houston won 485 times.
Edge on the money line=Golden State.
In 1000 simulated games, Golden State covered the first half line 571 times, while Houston covered the first half line 392 times.
Edge against the first half line=Golden State.
In 1000 simulated games, 749 games went over the first half total, while 226 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Houston covered the 4 point teaser line 485 times, and failed to cover 500 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Golden State covered the 4 point teaser line 664 times, and failed to cover 312 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 922 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 72 failed to go over.
Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, 179 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 801 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Houston.
Bet on Houston in home games on the money line when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game.
Houston record since the 2024 season: 14-1 (93%) with an average money line of -306. (+14.3 unit$, ROI=31.2%)
The average score of these games was Rockets 121.5, Opponents 108.1.
Bet on Houston in home games on the money line when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Houston record since the 2024 season: 21-4 (84%) with an average money line of -224. (+16.4 unit$, ROI=29.2%)
The average score of these games was Rockets 112.4, Opponents 105.2.
Trends Favoring Under.
Bet under the 1st half total in Golden State games when they attempt 21 to 26 free throws in a game.
The 1st half Under's record since the 2024 season: 34-9 (79%) with an average 1st half over/under of 115.5. (+24.1 unit$, ROI=48.7%)
The average score of these games was Warriors 55.7, Opponents 53.3.
Bet under the 1st half total in Golden State games when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game.
The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 27-9 (75%) with an average 1st half over/under of 113.5. (+17.1 unit$, ROI=42.0%)
The average score of these games was Warriors 53.1, Opponents 52.9.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.