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| Wednesday, 04/16/2025 10:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference - Play-In Game | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 DAL | 585 | 40-44 | 221 | 213.5 | +175 | 107.5 |
 SAC | 586 | 40-43 | -5 | -5 | -210 | -2.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| DAL | 108 | |||
| SAC | 112 | -6 | -5 | SAC (+1) |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| DAL | 112 | Ov (+19.8) | 56 | Ov (+9.9) | 42-86 | 48.8% | 12-32 | 36.5% | 16-21 | 76.3% | 45 | 9 | 12 | ||
| SAC | 122 | SAC (+5) | 61 | SAC (+2.5) | 46-92 | 50.2% | 14-36 | 38.6% | 15-19 | 80.6% | 55 | 15 | 12 | ||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Sacramento covered the spread 607 times, while Dallas covered the spread 367 times. Edge against the spread=Sacramento. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 869 games went over the total, while 131 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Sacramento won the game straight up 718 times, while Dallas won 260 times. Edge on the money line=Sacramento. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Sacramento covered the first half line 598 times, while Dallas covered the first half line 402 times. Edge against the first half line=Sacramento. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 799 games went over the first half total, while 201 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Sacramento covered the 4 point teaser line 704 times, and failed to cover 282 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Dallas covered the 4 point teaser line 456 times, and failed to cover 515 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 915 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 85 failed to go over. Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 179 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 821 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Dallas. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Sacramento when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Sacramento record during the 2025 season: 4-20 (17%) ATS with an average line of -3.3. (-18.0 unit$, ROI=-65.5%). The average score of these games was Kings 116.2, Opponents 120.0. |
| Bet against Sacramento on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Sacramento record during the 2025 season: 6-18 (25%) with an average money line of -243. (-37.7 unit$, ROI=-64.5%) The average score of these games was Kings 116.2, Opponents 120.0. |
| Trends Favoring Sacramento. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Dallas when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Dallas record during the 2025 season: 4-20 (17%) ATS with an average line of +4.5. (-18.0 unit$, ROI=-65.5%). The average score of these games was Mavericks 117.1, Opponents 129.8. |
| Bet against Dallas when they allow 121 to 127 points in a game. Dallas record during the 2025 season: 0-9 (0%) ATS with an average line of +5.0. (-9.9 unit$, ROI=-100.0%). The average score of these games was Mavericks 112.2, Opponents 123.8. |
| Bet on Sacramento on the money line when they score 121 or more points in a game. Sacramento record since the 2024 season: 55-12 (82%) with an average money line of -255. (+36.9 unit$, ROI=21.6%) The average score of these games was Kings 127.6, Opponents 116.5. |
| Bet against Dallas on the money line when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Dallas record during the 2025 season: 4-20 (17%) with an average money line of +199. (-18.7 unit$, ROI=-77.9%) The average score of these games was Mavericks 117.1, Opponents 129.8. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Dallas games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 22-3 (88%) with an average over/under of 229.2. (+18.7 unit$, ROI=68.0%) The average score of these games was Mavericks 117.1, Opponents 129.8. |
| Bet over the total in Sacramento games when they score 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 28-4 (88%) with an average over/under of 231.2. (+23.6 unit$, ROI=67.0%) The average score of these games was Kings 127.3, Opponents 117.0. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Dallas away or neutral games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 14-2 (88%) with an average 1st half over/under of 115.0. (+11.8 unit$, ROI=67.0%) The average score of these games was Mavericks 57.3, Opponents 66.1. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Dallas away or neutral games in games where they attempt 84 to 92 shots. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 16-2 (89%) with an average 1st half over/under of 115.0. (+13.8 unit$, ROI=66.0%) The average score of these games was Mavericks 62.8, Opponents 59.5. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.