MLB Game Simulation Projections

MLB Game Simulation Projections

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Traditional Ratings🔒Simulator Projections🔒

Explore the most comprehensive MLB game simulation score projections with detailed analysis of matchups, starting pitchers, and key betting metrics. This page features projected final scores, money line odds, run line advantages, and over/under estimates, all powered by advanced simulations. Stay ahead with insights into win probabilities, betting edges, and break-even percentages to make informed betting decisions. Updated regularly, this tool is a must-have for baseball bettors and fans seeking accurate MLB predictions and actionable insights.

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Wednesday, April 30, 2025

12:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
STL	Saint Louis	MIKOLAS(R)	4.6	+135	42.6%	38.5%		+1.5, -160	61.5%	51.2%		9o-20	10.5	OV (+1.5)
CIN	Cincinnati	SINGER(R)	5.9	-145	59.2%	61.5%	CIN (+2.3%)	-1.5, +140	41.7%	48.3%	CIN (+6.7%)	9uev	10.5

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2:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
DET	Detroit	JOBE(R)	4.9	+105	48.8%	57.8%	DET (+9.0%)	+1.5, -200	66.7%	69.0%	DET (+2.4%)	8o-15	9.1	OV (+1.1)
HOU	Houston	BLUBAUGH(R)	4.1	-115	53.5%	42.2%		-1.5, +170	37.0%	24.3%		8u-05	9.1

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3:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
ATL	Atlanta	SALE(L)	6.0	-250	71.4%	79.3%	ATL (+7.9%)	-1.5, -160	61.5%	69.2%	ATL (+7.7%)	10o-10	8.8
COL	Colorado	DOLLANDER(R)	2.9	+225	30.8%	20.7%		+1.5, +140	41.7%	36.1%		10u-10	8.8	UN (+1.2)

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3:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIA	Miami	QUANTRILL(R)	5.0	+260	27.8%	34.5%	MIA (+6.7%)	+1.5, +125	44.4%	46.0%	MIA (+1.5%)	10o-10	12.1	OV (+2.1)
LAD	LA Dodgers	GONSOLIN(R)	7.1	-315	75.9%	65.5%		-1.5, -145	59.2%	55.2%		10u-10	12.1

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4:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
LAA	LA Angels	ANDERSON(L)	3.6	+120	45.5%	41.4%		+1.5, -175	63.6%	57.2%		8o-15	7.9
SEA	Seattle	HANCOCK(R)	4.3	-130	56.5%	58.6%	SEA (+2.1%)	-1.5, +155	39.2%	39.5%	SEA (+0.3%)	8u-05	7.9	UN (+0.1)

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4:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
SF	San Francisco	ROUPP(R)	2.6	+125	44.4%	30.0%		+1.5, -170	63.0%	49.3%		7o-05	6.8
SD	San Diego	KING(R)	4.2	-135	57.4%	70.0%	SD (+12.6%)	-1.5, +150	40.0%	51.0%	SD (+11.0%)	7u-15	6.8	UN (+0.2)

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6:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIN	Minnesota	LOPEZ(R)	3.8	-110	52.4%	49.9%		-1.5, +135	42.6%	28.1%		7o-15	7.5	OV (+0.5)
CLE	Cleveland	ORTIZ(R)	3.8	-100	50.0%	50.1%	CLE (+0.1%)	+1.5, -155	60.8%	65.0%	CLE (+4.2%)	7u-05	7.5

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6:35 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
NYY	NY Yankees	CARRASCO(R)	6.5	+110	47.6%	57.7%	NYY (+10.1%)	+1.5, -190	65.5%	66.6%	NYY (+1.1%)	9.5o-10	12.0	OV (+2.5)
BAL	Baltimore	POVICH(L)	5.5	-120	54.5%	42.3%		-1.5, +165	37.7%	29.0%		9.5u-10	12.0

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6:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
STL	Saint Louis	MATZ(L)	5.4	+100	50.0%	60.8%	STL (+10.8%)	+1.5, -210	67.7%	70.8%	STL (+3.1%)	9.5o-05	9.6	OV (+0.1)
CIN	Cincinnati	PETTY(R)	4.2	-110	52.4%	39.2%		-1.5, +175	36.4%	22.5%		9.5u-15	9.6

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6:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CHC	Chicago Cubs	BOYD(L)	7.3	-160	61.5%	74.7%	CHC (+13.1%)	-1.5, -110	52.4%	66.0%	CHC (+13.6%)	9o-05	11.4	OV (+2.4)
PIT	Pittsburgh	MLODZINSKI(R)	4.1	+150	40.0%	25.3%		+1.5, -110	52.4%	37.6%		9u-15	11.4

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6:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
WAS	Washington	IRVIN(R)	2.7	+220	31.3%	20.9%		+1.5, +100	50.0%	37.3%		8o-05	8.3	OV (+0.3)
PHI	Philadelphia	SANCHEZ(L)	5.6	-240	70.6%	79.1%	PHI (+8.5%)	-1.5, -120	54.5%	68.1%	PHI (+13.5%)	8u-15	8.3

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7:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
KC	Kansas City	CAMERON(L)	3.4	+145	40.8%	43.4%	KC (+2.6%)	+1.5, -150	60.0%	60.1%	KC (+0.1%)	8o-10	7.3
TAM	Tampa Bay	RASMUSSEN(R)	3.9	-155	60.8%	56.6%		-1.5, +130	43.5%	34.9%		8u-10	7.3	UN (+0.7)

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7:07 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BOS	Boston	GIOLITO(R)	4.4	-105	51.2%	42.6%		-1.5, +140	41.7%	25.6%		9o-20	9.5	OV (+0.5)
TOR	Toronto	RODRIGUEZ(R)	5.1	-105	51.2%	57.4%	TOR (+6.2%)	+1.5, -160	61.5%	68.3%	TOR (+6.8%)	9uev	9.5

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7:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
ARI	Arizona	BURNES(R)	7.9	-105	51.2%	74.0%	ARI (+22.8%)	-1.5, +140	41.7%	66.0%	ARI (+24.3%)	8.5o-05	12.4	OV (+3.9)
NYM	NY Mets	BRAZOBAN(R)	4.5	-105	51.2%	26.0%		+1.5, -160	61.5%	37.3%		8.5u-15	12.4

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7:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIL	Milwaukee	MYERS(R)	5.2	-140	58.3%	76.6%	MIL (+18.3%)	-1.5, +105	48.8%	63.8%	MIL (+15.0%)	7.5o-15	7.9	OV (+0.4)
CHW	Chi White Sox	SMITH(R)	2.7	+130	43.5%	23.4%		+1.5, -125	55.6%	40.5%		7.5u-05	7.9

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8:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
OAK	Athletics	SEVERINO(R)	3.9	+145	40.8%	39.4%		+1.5, -150	60.0%	54.2%		8.5o-15	8.8	OV (+0.3)
TEX	Texas	EOVALDI(R)	4.9	-155	60.8%	60.6%		-1.5, +130	43.5%	44.1%	TEX (+0.6%)	8.5u-05	8.8

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Thursday, May 1, 2025

12:35 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CHC	Chicago Cubs	REA(R)	3.8	+145	40.8%	43.3%	CHC (+2.5%)	+1.5, -150	60.0%	58.5%		7.5o-05	8.1	OV (+0.6)
PIT	Pittsburgh	SKENES(R)	4.3	-155	60.8%	56.7%		-1.5, +130	43.5%	37.7%		7.5u-15	8.1

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12:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
STL	Saint Louis	LIBERATORE(L)	6.9	+105	48.8%	67.2%	STL (+18.4%)	+1.5, -200	66.7%	74.6%	STL (+7.9%)	8.5o-10	11.6	OV (+3.1)
CIN	Cincinnati	ABBOTT(L)	4.7	-115	53.5%	32.8%		-1.5, +170	37.0%	19.4%		8.5u-10	11.6

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1:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
KC	Kansas City	LUGO(R)	2.8	+130	43.5%	46.4%	KC (+3.0%)	+1.5, -170	63.0%	65.7%	KC (+2.7%)	8o-25	5.8
TAM	Tampa Bay	BAZ(R)	3.0	-140	58.3%	53.6%		-1.5, +150	40.0%	24.4%		8u+05	5.8	UN (+2.2)

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1:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
ARI	Arizona	GALLEN(R)	4.0	+140	41.7%	40.2%		+1.5, -155	60.8%	54.6%		7.5o-10	9.0	OV (+1.5)
NYM	NY Mets	SENGA(R)	5.0	-150	60.0%	59.8%		-1.5, +135	42.6%	43.6%	NYM (+1.1%)	7.5u-10	9.0

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1:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIN	Minnesota	WOODS RICHARDSON(R)	3.9	+100	50.0%	48.1%		+1.5, -210	67.7%	62.8%		9o-10	7.9
CLE	Cleveland	LIVELY(R)	4.0	-110	52.4%	51.9%		-1.5, +175	36.4%	31.6%		9u-10	7.9	UN (+1.1)

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2:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIL	Milwaukee	PATRICK(R)	5.4	-165	62.3%	67.0%	MIL (+4.7%)	-1.5, -115	53.5%	52.8%		8.5o-05	9.1	OV (+0.6)
CHW	Chi White Sox	BURKE(R)	3.7	+155	39.2%	33.0%		+1.5, -105	51.2%	48.0%		8.5u-15	9.1

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2:35 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
OAK	Athletics	SPRINGS(L)	4.7	+145	40.8%	44.7%	OAK (+3.9%)	+1.5, -150	60.0%	57.3%		8.5o-15	10.0	OV (+1.5)
TEX	Texas	MAHLE(R)	5.3	-155	60.8%	55.3%		-1.5, +130	43.5%	40.2%		8.5u-05	10.0

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6:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
WAS	Washington	LORD(R)	4.7	+155	39.2%	32.4%		+1.5, -140	58.3%	44.4%		9.5o-15	11.7	OV (+2.2)
PHI	Philadelphia	WALKER(R)	7.0	-165	62.3%	67.6%	PHI (+5.3%)	-1.5, +120	45.5%	57.3%	PHI (+11.8%)	9.5u-05	11.7

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7:07 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BOS	Boston	HOUCK(R)	3.6	-105	51.2%	42.1%		-1.5, +140	41.7%	21.1%		8.5oev	7.8
TOR	Toronto	BERRIOS(R)	4.3	-105	51.2%	57.9%	TOR (+6.7%)	+1.5, -160	61.5%	70.5%	TOR (+9.0%)	8.5u-20	7.8	UN (+0.7)

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9:38 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
DET	Detroit	MIZE(R)	5.1	-115	53.5%	66.3%	DET (+12.8%)	-1.5, +130	43.5%	51.1%	DET (+7.6%)	8.5oev	8.6	OV (+0.1)
LAA	LA Angels	KIKUCHI(L)	3.5	+105	48.8%	33.7%		+1.5, -150	60.0%	49.2%		8.5u-20	8.6

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9:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
COL	Colorado	FREELAND(L)	2.8	+205	32.8%	36.1%	COL (+3.3%)	+1.5, -105	51.2%	55.3%	COL (+4.0%)	7.5o-05	6.7
SF	San Francisco	VERLANDER(R)	3.8	-225	69.2%	63.9%		-1.5, -115	53.5%	41.7%		7.5u-15	6.7	UN (+0.8)

Glossary of Terms

Matchup: The competing teams for a specific game, with links to detailed matchup reports.

Pitchers: The starting pitchers for the matchup, including their throwing hand (L for left-handed, R for right-handed).

Score: The projected final scores for each team, based on simulation results.

Money Line: Betting odds for each team to win the game outright.

B.E. (Break-Even %): The percentage chance required for a bet to break even at the given odds.

Win%: The probability of a team winning based on simulations.

Edge: The projected advantage or disadvantage for a team, shown as a percentage difference between the simulation results and the betting odds.

Run Line: Betting odds for a team to win or lose by a specific margin (e.g., +1.5 or -1.5 runs).

O/U (Over/Under): The projected total number of runs scored in the game, compared to the bookmaker’s total.

Est. (Estimated Total): The projected total runs scored in the game, calculated from simulations.

OV/UN (Over/Under Edge): The difference between the projected total and the bookmaker’s total, highlighting potential betting value.

Updated: The last date and time when the simulations were run and updated.

Note: These projections are based on advanced simulations and aim to assist in analyzing betting opportunities.

MLB Game Simulation Projections

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