MLB Game Simulation Projections

MLB Game Simulation Projections

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Traditional Ratings🔒Simulator Projections🔒

Explore the most comprehensive MLB game simulation score projections with detailed analysis of matchups, starting pitchers, and key betting metrics. This page features projected final scores, money line odds, run line advantages, and over/under estimates, all powered by advanced simulations. Stay ahead with insights into win probabilities, betting edges, and break-even percentages to make informed betting decisions. Updated regularly, this tool is a must-have for baseball bettors and fans seeking accurate MLB predictions and actionable insights.

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Wednesday, July 30, 2025

12:35 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TOR	Toronto	BERRIOS(R)	4.5	+110	47.6%	50.3%	TOR (+2.7%)	+1.5, -190	65.5%	63.2%		9.5o-15	9.0
BAL	Baltimore	KREMER(R)	4.5	-120	54.5%	49.7%		-1.5, +165	37.7%	31.8%		9.5u-05	9.0	UN (+0.5)

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1:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BOS	Boston	BELLO(R)	5.0	+110	47.6%	54.7%	BOS (+7.1%)	+1.5, -190	65.5%	66.1%	BOS (+0.6%)	8o-15	9.5	OV (+1.5)
MIN	Minnesota	MATTHEWS(R)	4.5	-120	54.5%	45.3%		-1.5, +165	37.7%	28.3%		8u-05	9.5

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1:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
ARI	Arizona	NELSON(R)	5.2	+120	45.5%	46.6%	ARI (+1.2%)	+1.5, -175	63.6%	58.2%		9o-20	10.7	OV (+1.7)
DET	Detroit	PADDACK(R)	5.5	-130	56.5%	53.4%		-1.5, +155	39.2%	39.1%		9uev	10.7

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2:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CHC	Chicago Cubs	IMANAGA(L)	4.4	+105	48.8%	52.3%	CHC (+3.5%)	+1.5, -200	66.7%	65.2%		7.5o+05	8.6	OV (+1.1)
MIL	Milwaukee	PERALTA(R)	4.2	-115	53.5%	47.7%		-1.5, +170	37.0%	28.8%		7.5u-25	8.6

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2:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
ATL	Atlanta	WENTZ(L)	4.2	+100	50.0%	43.7%		+1.5, -210	67.7%	57.5%		9.5o-05	9.1
KC	Kansas City	ZERPA(L)	4.9	-110	52.4%	56.3%	KC (+3.9%)	-1.5, +175	36.4%	39.6%	KC (+3.3%)	9.5u-15	9.1	UN (+0.4)

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2:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
PHI	Philadelphia	WALKER(R)	4.6	-130	56.5%	48.6%		-1.5, +115	46.5%	31.4%		9o-15	9.3	OV (+0.3)
CHW	Chi White Sox	ALEXANDER(L)	4.7	+120	45.5%	51.4%	CHW (+5.9%)	+1.5, -135	57.4%	63.7%	CHW (+6.2%)	9u-05	9.3

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2:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
WAS	Washington	GORE(L)	4.9	+105	48.8%	50.6%	WAS (+1.8%)	+1.5, -200	66.7%	62.6%		8o-15	9.7	OV (+1.7)
HOU	Houston	GUSTO(R)	4.8	-115	53.5%	49.4%		-1.5, +170	37.0%	33.1%		8u-05	9.7

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3:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
PIT	Pittsburgh	BURROWS(R)	2.6	+182	35.5%	25.0%		+1.5, -120	54.5%	43.4%		7o-10	7.3	OV (+0.3)
SF	San Francisco	WEBB(R)	4.7	-195	66.1%	75.0%	SF (+8.9%)	-1.5, +100	50.0%	59.9%	SF (+9.9%)	7u-10	7.3

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4:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
NYM	NY Mets	HOLMES(R)	3.9	+100	50.0%	46.5%		+1.5, -210	67.7%	61.3%		8.5o-05	8.1
SD	San Diego	DARVISH(R)	4.2	-110	52.4%	53.5%	SD (+1.1%)	-1.5, +175	36.4%	33.8%		8.5u-15	8.1	UN (+0.4)

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6:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
COL	Colorado	FREELAND(L)	3.2	+170	37.0%	37.0%		+1.5, -130	56.5%	54.3%		8o-05	7.5
CLE	Cleveland	ALLARD(L)	4.3	-180	64.3%	63.0%		-1.5, +110	47.6%	43.5%		8u-15	7.5	UN (+0.5)

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7:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TAM	Tampa Bay	LITTELL(R)	5.8	+115	46.5%	57.5%	TAM (+11.0%)	+1.5, -180	64.3%	67.3%	TAM (+3.0%)	9o-10	10.7	OV (+1.7)
NYY	NY Yankees	WARREN(R)	4.9	-125	55.6%	42.5%		-1.5, +160	38.5%	27.6%		9u-10	10.7

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7:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
LAD	LA Dodgers	OHTANI(R)	5.1	-155	60.8%	34.3%		-1.5, -110	52.4%	21.5%		9.5o-10	12.3	OV (+2.8)
CIN	Cincinnati	MARTINEZ(R)	7.2	+145	40.8%	65.7%	CIN (+24.9%)	+1.5, -110	52.4%	73.0%	CIN (+20.6%)	9.5u-10	12.3

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7:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIA	Miami	QUANTRILL(R)	4.5	+130	43.5%	46.6%	MIA (+3.1%)	+1.5, -170	63.0%	59.7%		8.5o-15	9.3	OV (+0.8)
STL	Saint Louis	MIKOLAS(R)	4.8	-140	58.3%	53.4%		-1.5, +150	40.0%	36.7%		8.5u-05	9.3

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9:38 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TEX	Texas	EOVALDI(R)	4.4	-120	54.5%	55.4%	TEX (+0.9%)	-1.5, +125	44.4%	36.7%		8o-15	8.3	OV (+0.3)
LAA	LA Angels	SORIANO(R)	3.9	+110	47.6%	44.6%		+1.5, -145	59.2%	59.3%	LAA (+0.2%)	8u-05	8.3

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10:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
SEA	Seattle	WOO(R)	4.7	-140	58.3%	59.7%	SEA (+1.4%)	-1.5, +105	48.8%	42.3%		9.5o-15	8.5
OAK	Athletics	SPRINGS(L)	3.8	+130	43.5%	40.3%		+1.5, -125	55.6%	55.4%		9.5u-05	8.5	UN (+1.0)

Glossary of Terms

Matchup: The competing teams for a specific game, with links to detailed matchup reports.

Pitchers: The starting pitchers for the matchup, including their throwing hand (L for left-handed, R for right-handed).

Score: The projected final scores for each team, based on simulation results.

Money Line: Betting odds for each team to win the game outright.

B.E. (Break-Even %): The percentage chance required for a bet to break even at the given odds.

Win%: The probability of a team winning based on simulations.

Edge: The projected advantage or disadvantage for a team, shown as a percentage difference between the simulation results and the betting odds.

Run Line: Betting odds for a team to win or lose by a specific margin (e.g., +1.5 or -1.5 runs).

O/U (Over/Under): The projected total number of runs scored in the game, compared to the bookmaker’s total.

Est. (Estimated Total): The projected total runs scored in the game, calculated from simulations.

OV/UN (Over/Under Edge): The difference between the projected total and the bookmaker’s total, highlighting potential betting value.

Updated: The last date and time when the simulations were run and updated.

Note: These projections are based on advanced simulations and aim to assist in analyzing betting opportunities.

MLB Game Simulation Projections

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