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Sunday, 05/04/2025 1:35 PM 
 RecordStarterOpenLatest
 Gm#W-LPitcherMLO/UMLO/URL
 KC Kansas City91717-16LORENZEN(R)+1159.5o-10+1159.5o-05+1.5, -180
 BAL Baltimore91813-18GIBSON(R)-1259.5u-10-1259.5u-15-1.5, +160

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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsStarting PitchersLineupsBullpensSchedule & ResultsManagers🔒Umpire🔒Head-to-Head🔒

MLB Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team and pitcher strength with our power ratings, highlighting discrepancies between estimated and actual money lines to identify potential betting edges.

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TeamsStarting PitchersMoney LineRun Line
 Rating RatingLineB.E.Win%Edge%LineB.E.Win%Edge%
 KC Kansas City94.5LORENZEN(R)120.4+11546.5%57.7%KC (+11.2%)+1.5, -18064.3%75.8%KC (+11.5%)
 BAL Baltimore84.3GIBSON(R)89.7-12555.6%42.3%-1.5, +16038.5%24.2%

Game Simulation Results

Simulated MLB game outcomes with team and pitcher averages included. Compare projected scores and lines to actual odds, highlighting potential betting edges.

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  Money LineRun LineOver/Under
TeamsPitchersScoreLineB.E.Win%EdgeLineB.E.Win%EdgeO/UEst.Edge
 KC Kansas CityLORENZEN(R)3.9+11546.5%50.4%KC (+3.9%)+1.5, -18064.3%64.8%KC (+0.5%)9.5o-057.8
 BAL BaltimoreGIBSON(R)3.9-12555.6%49.6%-1.5, +16038.5%28.6%9.5u-157.8UN (+1.7)
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the MLB teams involved in the game simulation.

Pitchers: The starting pitchers for each team, including their hand preference (R for right-handed, L for left-handed).

Score: The average projected score for each team based on the simulation.

B.E.: (Breakeven Percentage) - The percentage of times a team must win or cover to not lose money.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimate line differs significantly from the actual betting line. The edge is displayed only if there is a significant difference.

Money Line Estimate (Est.): The estimated money line odds based on the simulation.

Money Line Actual (Act.): The actual money line odds offered by sportsbooks.

Money Line Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated money line differs significantly from the actual money line.

Rating (Pitchers): The power rating assigned to each starting pitcher, reflecting their performance and expected impact on the game.

Run Line Estimate (Est.): The estimated run line and associated odds based on the simulation.

Run Line Actual (Act.): The actual run line and associated odds offered by sportsbooks.

Run Line Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated run line differs significantly from the actual run line.

Over/Under Estimate (Est.): The estimated total number of runs (over/under) and associated odds based on the simulation.

Over/Under Actual (Act.): The actual total number of runs (over/under) and associated odds offered by sportsbooks.

Over/Under Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated over/under differs significantly from the actual over/under.