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| Monday, 04/07/2025 8:50 PM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA Tournament - Championship - Alamodome - San Antonio, TX | |||||||
| Gm# | NET | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
3  FLA | 701 | 4 | 36-4 | -1 | -1 | -115 | -0.5 |
2  HOU | 702 | 3 | 35-5 | 141.5 | 140.5 | -105 | 66 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
College Basketball Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| FLA | 113 | -1 | ||
| HOU | 113 | 0 | HOU (+1) | |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| FLA | 75 | Ov (+11.6) | 36 | Ov (+6.4) | 26-56 | 46.1% | 9-25 | 36.7% | 15-19 | 77.3% | 40 | 12 | 12 | ||
| HOU | 77 | HOU (+2) | 36 | HOU (+1.5) | 28-64 | 43.4% | 8-21 | 37.8% | 13-17 | 79.6% | 41 | 15 | 9 | ||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Houston covered the spread 554 times, while Florida covered the spread 417 times. Edge against the spread=Houston. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 796 games went over the total, while 204 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Houston won the game straight up 525 times, while Florida won 446 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Houston covered the first half line 549 times, while Florida covered the first half line 451 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 715 games went over the first half total, while 253 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Houston covered the 4 point teaser line 648 times, and failed to cover 325 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Florida covered the 4 point teaser line 528 times, and failed to cover 440 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 871 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 129 failed to go over. Edge against the 4 teaser total=Over. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 304 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 696 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Florida. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Florida in away or neutral games on the money line when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game. Florida record during the 2025 season: 11-1 (92%) with an average money line of -236. (+13.5 unit$, ROI=47.6%) The average score of these games was Gators 87.5, Opponents 77.1. |
| Bet on Florida in away or neutral games on the money line when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. Florida record during the 2025 season: 10-1 (91%) with an average money line of -196. (+12.7 unit$, ROI=58.8%) The average score of these games was Gators 86.1, Opponents 76.0. |
| Trends Favoring Houston. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Houston on the money line when they commit 9 or fewer turnovers in a game. Houston record since the 2024 season: 24-2 (92%) with an average money line of -363. (+22.0 unit$, ROI=23.3%) The average score of these games was Cougars 74.8, Opponents 58.3. |
| Bet on Houston on the 1st half line when they score 75 to 80 points in a game. Houston record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 15-1 (94%) with an average 1st half line of -9.5. (+13.9 unit$, ROI=74.3%) The average 1st half score of these games was Cougars 39.4, Opponents 24.6. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Florida games when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game. The Over's record since the 2024 season: 11-1 (92%) with an average over/under of 151.0. (+9.9 unit$, ROI=75.0%) The average score of these games was Gators 84.5, Opponents 83.2. |
| Bet over the total in Florida games when they force 9 or fewer turnovers in a game. The Over's record since the 2023 season: 29-6 (83%) with an average over/under of 154.3. (+22.4 unit$, ROI=58.2%) The average score of these games was Gators 82.9, Opponents 79.8. |
| Bet over the total in Florida games when they commit 3 to 7 more turnovers than their opponents. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 10-1 (91%) with an average over/under of 159.4. (+8.9 unit$, ROI=73.6%) The average score of these games was Gators 85.3, Opponents 80.8. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Florida games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 13-2 (87%) with an average 1st half over/under of 72.5. (+10.8 unit$, ROI=61.4%) The average score of these games was Gators 40.4, Opponents 36.3. |
| Trends Favoring Under. | |
|---|---|
| Bet under the total in Houston away or neutral games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 10-1 (91%) with an average over/under of 134.3. (+8.9 unit$, ROI=73.6%) The average score of these games was Cougars 68.4, Opponents 57.4. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Houston away or neutral games when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game. The 1st half Under's record since the 2024 season: 11-0 (100%) with an average 1st half over/under of 61.0. (+11.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Cougars 29.7, Opponents 26.1. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.