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MLB Top Starting Pitcher Trends

Explore top team and manager betting trends for upcoming games, covering records vs. the money line, run line, and over/under. Select records from various time windows.

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Team TrendsManager TrendsStarting Pitcher vs. Money LineStarting Pitcher vs. Run LineStarting Pitcher vs. Over/Under
Current View: Starting Pitcher trends, records vs. run line.
Friday, July 18, 2025
LA Angels at Philadelphia - Friday, 07/18/2025 6:45 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring LA Angels
Bet against JESUS LUZARDO on the run line in an inter-league game.
LUZARDO's team record since the 2024 season: 0-6 (0%) ATS with an average run line of -0.5, money line=-107. (-6.6 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was LUZARDO's team 3.0, Opponents 6.5.
Bet against JESUS LUZARDO on the run line vs. an AL team with they batting average of .255 or worse.
LUZARDO's team record since the 2024 season: 0-6 (0%) ATS with an average run line of -0.5, money line=-107. (-6.6 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was LUZARDO's team 3.0, Opponents 6.5.
Bet against JESUS LUZARDO on the run line vs. an AL team with they batting average of .260 or worse.
LUZARDO's team record since the 2024 season: 0-6 (0%) ATS with an average run line of -0.5, money line=-107. (-6.6 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was LUZARDO's team 3.0, Opponents 6.5.
Bet against JESUS LUZARDO on the run line vs. an AL team with they batting average of .265 or worse.
LUZARDO's team record since the 2024 season: 0-6 (0%) ATS with an average run line of -0.5, money line=-107. (-6.6 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was LUZARDO's team 3.0, Opponents 6.5.
Athletics at Cleveland - Friday, 07/18/2025 7:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Athletics
Bet on LUIS SEVERINO in away starts on the run line vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs/game on the season.
SEVERINO's team record in his career: 7-0 (100%) ATS with an average run line of -0.2, money line=-146. (+7.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was SEVERINO's team 5.4, Opponents 2.6.
Minnesota at Colorado - Friday, 07/18/2025 8:40 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Colorado
Bet on KYLE FREELAND in home starts on the run line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season.
FREELAND's team record since the 2024 season: 7-0 (100%) ATS with an average run line of +1.1, money line=-110. (+7.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was FREELAND's team 7.1, Opponents 5.0.
Bet against CHRIS PADDACK on the run line as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175.
PADDACK's team record during the 2025 season: 0-8 (0%) ATS with an average run line of -1.5, money line=+139. (-8.8 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was PADDACK's team 2.4, Opponents 6.0.
Houston at Seattle - Friday, 07/18/2025 10:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Houston
Bet on FRAMBER VALDEZ in away starts on the run line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game.
VALDEZ's team record in his career: 10-0 (100%) ATS with an average run line of -1.2, money line=-128. (+10.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was VALDEZ's team 6.5, Opponents 1.7.
Bet against LUIS CASTILLO in home starts on the run line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season.
CASTILLO's team record since the 2023 season: 0-8 (0%) ATS with an average run line of -1.1, money line=+114. (-8.8 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was CASTILLO's team 3.0, Opponents 4.3.
Bet on FRAMBER VALDEZ on the run line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season.
VALDEZ's team record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) ATS with an average run line of -0.5, money line=-111. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was VALDEZ's team 4.8, Opponents 1.7.
Bet against LUIS CASTILLO in home starts on the run line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game.
CASTILLO's team record since the 2023 season: 1-11 (8%) ATS with an average run line of -1.3, money line=+113. (-11.1 unit$, ROI=-84.1%).
The average score of these games was CASTILLO's team 3.2, Opponents 3.6.
Bet on FRAMBER VALDEZ on the run line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.
VALDEZ's team record since the 2024 season: 10-1 (91%) ATS with an average run line of -0.1, money line=-125. (+8.9 unit$, ROI=73.6%).
The average score of these games was VALDEZ's team 4.9, Opponents 2.2.
Bet on FRAMBER VALDEZ in away starts on the run line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season.
VALDEZ's team record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) ATS with an average run line of 0.0, money line=-127. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was VALDEZ's team 4.5, Opponents 2.5.
Glossary of Terms

Description: Provides context or specific conditions under which the team’s performance is being analyzed (e.g., "against NFC South division opponents").

ATS (Against the Spread): Indicates the team's win-loss record against the point spread. A record of 0-0 means the team has not covered or failed to cover the spread in any games under the specific trend.

O/U (Over/Under): Refers to the team's win-loss record in relation to the total points or runs line set by sportsbooks. "O/U" indicates whether the total points scored in the game were over or under the set line.

W-L (Win-Loss): The team's win-loss record for the specified trend or condition (e.g., as an underdog, in road games).

ML (Money Line): The win-loss record of the team on the money line, reflecting outright wins and losses without considering the point spread.

Game: Indicates performance over the entire game, as opposed to just a portion such as the first half.

1st Half: Indicates the team's performance specifically during the first half of the game, including ATS, O/U, and W-L records.

All Games: Refers to trends and records across all games played during the season, not limited to home or away games.

Road Games: Refers to trends and records specifically for games played away from the team’s home venue.

Trend: A historical pattern based on past betting results for a team, coach, or situation.

ATS (Against the Spread): A record of a team's performance relative to the point spread set by oddsmakers.

ML (Money Line): A record of a team's straight-up performance without consideration of the point spread.

O/U (Over/Under): A record of games going over or under the total points line set by oddsmakers.

1H ATS (1st Half Against the Spread): A record of a team's performance against the point spread for the first half only.

1H O/U (1st Half Over/Under): A record of a team’s first-half games going over or under the total first-half points line.

Betting Statistics

ROI (Return on Investment): A measure of profitability expressed as a percentage, showing how much profit was made per unit wagered.

Unit$: A measure of profit or loss in terms of betting units. A positive value indicates profit, while a negative value indicates loss.

Situational Trends

After a Win/Loss: Indicates how a team or coach performs in games following a win or loss.

Conference Game: A matchup between teams from the same conference.

Non-Conference Game: A matchup between teams from different conferences.

Home/Away Record: Performance records based on whether a team plays at home or on the road.

Neutral Site: A game played at a location that is not the home court of either team.

Performance-Based Trends

Revenging a Loss: A record of how a team performs when facing an opponent that previously defeated them.

Playing with Rest: Performance in games following a certain number of days of rest.

Off a High-Scoring Game: A trend based on performance in games following a game in which the team scored a large number of points.

After a Close Win/Loss: A trend measuring performance following a game decided by a small margin.

Coach-Based Trends

Coach ATS Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams against the spread.

Coach ML Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams in straight-up wins and losses.

Coach O/U Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams in relation to the total points line.

Team-Based Trends

Team ATS Record: The historical record of the team against the spread.

Team ML Record: The historical record of the team in straight-up wins and losses.

Team O/U Record: The historical record of the team in relation to the total points line.