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MLB Top Starting Pitcher Trends

Explore top team and manager betting trends for upcoming games, covering records vs. the money line, run line, and over/under. Select records from various time windows.

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Team TrendsManager TrendsStarting Pitcher vs. Money LineStarting Pitcher vs. Run LineStarting Pitcher vs. Over/Under
Current View: Starting Pitcher trends, records vs. money line.
Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Toronto at Baltimore - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 12:35 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Toronto
Bet on JOSE BERRIOS on the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5.
BERRIOS' team record since the 2024 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average money line of +104.5. (+8.4 unit$, ROI=84.1%).
The average score of these games was BERRIOS' team 7.4, Opponents 3.3.
Trends Favoring Baltimore
Bet on DEAN KREMER in home starts on the money line against division opponents.
KREMER's team record since the 2023 season: 12-0 (100%) with an average money line of -106.3. (+12.0 unit$, ROI=94.1%).
The average score of these games was KREMER's team 5.4, Opponents 2.7.
Bet on DEAN KREMER in home starts on the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).
KREMER's team record since the 2023 season: 9-0 (100%) with an average money line of -101.7. (+9.0 unit$, ROI=98.4%).
The average score of these games was KREMER's team 6.8, Opponents 3.1.
Arizona at Detroit - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 1:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Arizona
Bet on RYNE NELSON on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season.
NELSON's team record since the 2023 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average money line of +131.7. (+7.9 unit$, ROI=131.7%).
The average score of these games was NELSON's team 6.7, Opponents 3.5.
Bet against CHRIS PADDACK on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher.
PADDACK's team record during the 2025 season: 1-8 (11%) with an average money line of -142.2. (-10.4 unit$, ROI=-81.1%).
The average score of these games was PADDACK's team 2.6, Opponents 6.0.
Bet on RYNE NELSON on the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season.
NELSON's team record since the 2024 season: 12-2 (86%) with an average money line of +105.4. (+10.6 unit$, ROI=76.0%).
The average score of these games was NELSON's team 7.2, Opponents 3.3.
Boston at Minnesota - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 1:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Boston
Bet on BRAYAN BELLO on the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season.
BELLO's team record since the 2024 season: 12-1 (92%) with an average money line of -109.2. (+10.9 unit$, ROI=76.8%).
The average score of these games was BELLO's team 5.9, Opponents 3.4.
Bet on BRAYAN BELLO on the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season.
BELLO's team record since the 2024 season: 12-1 (92%) with an average money line of -109.2. (+10.9 unit$, ROI=76.8%).
The average score of these games was BELLO's team 5.9, Opponents 3.4.
Bet on BRAYAN BELLO on the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season.
BELLO's team record since the 2024 season: 11-1 (92%) with an average money line of -116.7. (+9.8 unit$, ROI=70.2%).
The average score of these games was BELLO's team 5.8, Opponents 3.6.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 2:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Chicago Cubs
Bet on SHOTA IMANAGA on the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season.
IMANAGA's team record in his career: 9-0 (100%) with an average money line of -141.7. (+9.0 unit$, ROI=70.6%).
The average score of these games was IMANAGA's team 6.6, Opponents 2.1.
Bet on SHOTA IMANAGA on the money line after a loss.
IMANAGA's team record in his career: 18-2 (90%) with an average money line of -143.3. (+15.1 unit$, ROI=52.8%).
The average score of these games was IMANAGA's team 5.4, Opponents 2.8.
Trends Favoring Milwaukee
Bet on FREDDY PERALTA on the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.
PERALTA's team record during the 2025 season: 7-0 (100%) with an average money line of -101.4. (+7.0 unit$, ROI=98.6%).
The average score of these games was PERALTA's team 6.9, Opponents 3.1.
NY Mets at San Diego - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 4:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring NY Mets
Bet against YU DARVISH on the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season.
DARVISH's team record since the 2023 season: 0-8 (0%) with an average money line of -136.3. (-10.9 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was DARVISH's team 3.8, Opponents 7.4.
Bet against YU DARVISH on the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5.
DARVISH's team record since the 2023 season: 2-10 (17%) with an average money line of -172.9. (-15.3 unit$, ROI=-73.7%).
The average score of these games was DARVISH's team 3.0, Opponents 5.0.
Bet against YU DARVISH on the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season.
DARVISH's team record since the 2023 season: 0-5 (0%) with an average money line of -144.0. (-7.2 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was DARVISH's team 3.8, Opponents 7.2.
Colorado at Cleveland - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 6:40 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Colorado
Bet on KYLE FREELAND on the money line vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season.
FREELAND's team record in his career: 10-1 (91%) with an average money line of +138.6. (+12.9 unit$, ROI=116.9%).
The average score of these games was FREELAND's team 5.5, Opponents 3.8.
Bet on KYLE FREELAND on the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season.
FREELAND's team record in his career: 9-1 (90%) with an average money line of +147.5. (+12.3 unit$, ROI=122.8%).
The average score of these games was FREELAND's team 5.9, Opponents 3.9.
Bet on KYLE FREELAND on the money line vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season.
FREELAND's team record in his career: 8-1 (89%) with an average money line of +142.8. (+10.4 unit$, ROI=115.8%).
The average score of these games was FREELAND's team 6.0, Opponents 4.2.
Miami at Saint Louis - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 7:45 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Miami
Bet on MILES MIKOLAS on the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game.
MIKOLAS' team record since the 2024 season: 10-1 (91%) with an average money line of +101.4. (+9.1 unit$, ROI=83.1%).
The average score of these games was MIKOLAS' team 5.5, Opponents 3.1.
Texas at LA Angels - Wednesday, 07/30/2025 9:38 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Texas
Bet on NATHAN EOVALDI in away starts on the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game.
EOVALDI's team record since the 2024 season: 8-0 (100%) with an average money line of -123.8. (+8.0 unit$, ROI=80.8%).
The average score of these games was EOVALDI's team 5.6, Opponents 1.4.
Bet on NATHAN EOVALDI in away starts on the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season.
EOVALDI's team record since the 2024 season: 7-0 (100%) with an average money line of -129.3. (+7.0 unit$, ROI=77.3%).
The average score of these games was EOVALDI's team 5.9, Opponents 1.4.
Thursday, July 31, 2025
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees - Thursday, 07/31/2025 1:05 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring NY Yankees
Bet against RYAN PEPIOT in away starts on the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game.
PEPIOT's team record during the 2025 season: 0-8 (0%) with an average money line of +123.8. (-8.0 unit$, ROI=-100.0%).
The average score of these games was PEPIOT's team 2.0, Opponents 5.9.
Atlanta at Cincinnati - Thursday, 07/31/2025 7:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Cincinnati
Bet against CARLOS CARRASCO on the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150.
CARRASCO's team record since the 2023 season: 1-11 (8%) with an average money line of +118.8. (-9.8 unit$, ROI=-81.8%).
The average score of these games was CARRASCO's team 3.2, Opponents 5.9.
Glossary of Terms

Description: Provides context or specific conditions under which the team’s performance is being analyzed (e.g., "against NFC South division opponents").

ATS (Against the Spread): Indicates the team's win-loss record against the point spread. A record of 0-0 means the team has not covered or failed to cover the spread in any games under the specific trend.

O/U (Over/Under): Refers to the team's win-loss record in relation to the total points or runs line set by sportsbooks. "O/U" indicates whether the total points scored in the game were over or under the set line.

W-L (Win-Loss): The team's win-loss record for the specified trend or condition (e.g., as an underdog, in road games).

ML (Money Line): The win-loss record of the team on the money line, reflecting outright wins and losses without considering the point spread.

Game: Indicates performance over the entire game, as opposed to just a portion such as the first half.

1st Half: Indicates the team's performance specifically during the first half of the game, including ATS, O/U, and W-L records.

All Games: Refers to trends and records across all games played during the season, not limited to home or away games.

Road Games: Refers to trends and records specifically for games played away from the team’s home venue.

Trend: A historical pattern based on past betting results for a team, coach, or situation.

ATS (Against the Spread): A record of a team's performance relative to the point spread set by oddsmakers.

ML (Money Line): A record of a team's straight-up performance without consideration of the point spread.

O/U (Over/Under): A record of games going over or under the total points line set by oddsmakers.

1H ATS (1st Half Against the Spread): A record of a team's performance against the point spread for the first half only.

1H O/U (1st Half Over/Under): A record of a team’s first-half games going over or under the total first-half points line.

Betting Statistics

ROI (Return on Investment): A measure of profitability expressed as a percentage, showing how much profit was made per unit wagered.

Unit$: A measure of profit or loss in terms of betting units. A positive value indicates profit, while a negative value indicates loss.

Situational Trends

After a Win/Loss: Indicates how a team or coach performs in games following a win or loss.

Conference Game: A matchup between teams from the same conference.

Non-Conference Game: A matchup between teams from different conferences.

Home/Away Record: Performance records based on whether a team plays at home or on the road.

Neutral Site: A game played at a location that is not the home court of either team.

Performance-Based Trends

Revenging a Loss: A record of how a team performs when facing an opponent that previously defeated them.

Playing with Rest: Performance in games following a certain number of days of rest.

Off a High-Scoring Game: A trend based on performance in games following a game in which the team scored a large number of points.

After a Close Win/Loss: A trend measuring performance following a game decided by a small margin.

Coach-Based Trends

Coach ATS Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams against the spread.

Coach ML Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams in straight-up wins and losses.

Coach O/U Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams in relation to the total points line.

Team-Based Trends

Team ATS Record: The historical record of the team against the spread.

Team ML Record: The historical record of the team in straight-up wins and losses.

Team O/U Record: The historical record of the team in relation to the total points line.