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MLB Top Starting Pitcher Trends

Explore top team and manager betting trends for upcoming games, covering records vs. the money line, run line, and over/under. Select records from various time windows.

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Team TrendsManager TrendsStarting Pitcher vs. Money LineStarting Pitcher vs. Run LineStarting Pitcher vs. Over/Under
Current View: Starting Pitcher trends, records vs. over/under.
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Saint Louis at Cincinnati - Wednesday, 04/30/2025 12:40 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in MILES MIKOLAS away starts in day games.
The Under's record since the 2023 season: 16-2 (89%) with an average over/under of 9.1, money line=-110. (+13.8 unit$, ROI=69.7%).
The average score of these games was MIKOLAS' team 3.3, Opponents 3.3.
Bet under the total in MILES MIKOLAS starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175.
The Under's record in his career: 26-5 (84%) with an average over/under of 8.5, money line=-111. (+20.5 unit$, ROI=60.1%).
The average score of these games was MIKOLAS' team 3.1, Opponents 2.7.
Bet under the total in MILES MIKOLAS starts as an underdog of +125 to +175.
The Under's record in his career: 29-9 (76%) with an average over/under of 8.4, money line=-111. (+19.1 unit$, ROI=45.7%).
The average score of these games was MIKOLAS' team 2.9, Opponents 3.3.
Bet under the total in MILES MIKOLAS starts on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10.
The Under's record since the 2023 season: 19-5 (79%) with an average over/under of 9.1, money line=-110. (+13.5 unit$, ROI=49.1%).
The average score of these games was MIKOLAS' team 3.7, Opponents 4.4.
Miami at LA Dodgers - Wednesday, 04/30/2025 3:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in CAL QUANTRILL starts vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season.
The Under's record in his career: 15-3 (83%) with an average over/under of 8.6, money line=-112. (+11.7 unit$, ROI=56.0%).
The average score of these games was QUANTRILL's team 2.6, Opponents 4.3.
Atlanta at Colorado - Wednesday, 04/30/2025 3:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in CHRIS SALE away starts when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=38%).
The Under's record in his career: 16-2 (89%) with an average over/under of 8.2, money line=-109. (+13.8 unit$, ROI=62.7%).
The average score of these games was SALE's team 3.9, Opponents 2.1.
LA Angels at Seattle - Wednesday, 04/30/2025 4:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Over
Bet over the total in TYLER ANDERSON starts vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season.
The Over's record in his career: 11-2 (85%) with an average over/under of 9.3, money line=-112. (+8.8 unit$, ROI=57.1%).
The average score of these games was ANDERSON's team 5.8, Opponents 6.0.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh - Wednesday, 04/30/2025 6:40 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Over
Bet over the total in MATT BOYD away starts with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL).
The Over's record in his career: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.3, money line=-113. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was BOYD's team 8.0, Opponents 7.8.
Bet over the total in MATT BOYD away starts vs. a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL).
The Over's record in his career: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.3, money line=-113. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was BOYD's team 8.0, Opponents 7.8.
Arizona at NY Mets - Wednesday, 04/30/2025 7:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Over
Bet over the total in CORBIN BURNES starts when the money line is +125 to -125.
The Over's record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.4, money line=-109. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=77.9%).
The average score of these games was BURNES' team 8.0, Opponents 5.4.
Bet over the total in CORBIN BURNES starts on the road when the money line is +125 to -125.
The Over's record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.4, money line=-109. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=77.9%).
The average score of these games was BURNES' team 8.0, Opponents 5.4.
Bet over the total in CORBIN BURNES away starts vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game.
The Over's record since the 2024 season: 12-2 (86%) with an average over/under of 7.9, money line=-109. (+9.8 unit$, ROI=55.7%).
The average score of these games was BURNES' team 6.0, Opponents 4.9.
Bet over the total in CORBIN BURNES away starts vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season.
The Over's record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.5, money line=-106. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=77.9%).
The average score of these games was BURNES' team 6.9, Opponents 6.7.
Athletics at Texas - Wednesday, 04/30/2025 8:05 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Over
Bet over the total in LUIS SEVERINO starts vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.
The Over's record since the 2023 season: 10-1 (91%) with an average over/under of 8.4, money line=-108. (+8.9 unit$, ROI=73.6%).
The average score of these games was SEVERINO's team 4.3, Opponents 7.3.
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh - Thursday, 05/01/2025 12:35 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Over
Bet over the total in PAUL SKENES home starts vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season.
The Over's record in his career: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 7.3, money line=-113. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was SKENES' team 8.7, Opponents 5.2.
Bet over the total in COLIN REA starts as an underdog of +100 to +150.
The Over's record in his career: 24-8 (75%) with an average over/under of 8.3, money line=-111. (+15.2 unit$, ROI=41.9%).
The average score of these games was REA's team 6.0, Opponents 5.6.
Saint Louis at Cincinnati - Thursday, 05/01/2025 12:40 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in ANDREW ABBOTT home starts in the first half of the season.
The Under's record in his career: 9-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 9.0, money line=-112. (+9.0 unit$, ROI=81.8%).
The average score of these games was ABBOTT's team 3.4, Opponents 2.3.
Bet under the total in ANDREW ABBOTT starts at home when the money line is +125 to -125.
The Under's record since the 2023 season: 12-1 (92%) with an average over/under of 9.2, money line=-110. (+10.9 unit$, ROI=66.1%).
The average score of these games was ABBOTT's team 2.9, Opponents 2.7.
Bet under the total in ANDREW ABBOTT starts in home games.
The Under's record in his career: 18-3 (86%) with an average over/under of 9.3, money line=-111. (+14.7 unit$, ROI=58.1%).
The average score of these games was ABBOTT's team 3.8, Opponents 3.2.
Bet under the total in ANDREW ABBOTT home starts vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game.
The Under's record since the 2023 season: 17-3 (85%) with an average over/under of 9.3, money line=-112. (+13.7 unit$, ROI=59.3%).
The average score of these games was ABBOTT's team 3.8, Opponents 3.0.
Bet under the total in ANDREW ABBOTT starts at home when the total is 8.5 to 10.
The Under's record in his career: 15-3 (83%) with an average over/under of 9.2, money line=-111. (+11.7 unit$, ROI=53.2%).
The average score of these games was ABBOTT's team 3.8, Opponents 3.1.
Bet under the total in ANDREW ABBOTT home starts vs. a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL).
The Under's record since the 2023 season: 12-2 (86%) with an average over/under of 9.2, money line=-112. (+9.8 unit$, ROI=59.4%).
The average score of these games was ABBOTT's team 3.8, Opponents 3.1.
Bet under the total in ANDREW ABBOTT starts when the money line is +125 to -125.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 13-3 (81%) with an average over/under of 8.8, money line=-111. (+9.7 unit$, ROI=49.0%).
The average score of these games was ABBOTT's team 3.5, Opponents 3.5.
Arizona at NY Mets - Thursday, 05/01/2025 1:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in KODAI SENGA starts as a home favorite of -150 or more.
The Under's record in his career: 8-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.4, money line=-113. (+8.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was SENGA's team 2.4, Opponents 2.1.
Bet under the total in KODAI SENGA starts as a favorite of -150 or more.
The Under's record in his career: 9-1 (90%) with an average over/under of 8.5, money line=-110. (+7.9 unit$, ROI=65.3%).
The average score of these games was SENGA's team 3.6, Opponents 3.0.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay - Thursday, 05/01/2025 1:10 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in SETH LUGO starts in day games.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 12-2 (86%) with an average over/under of 8.1, money line=-111. (+9.8 unit$, ROI=63.6%).
The average score of these games was LUGO's team 3.0, Opponents 3.1.
Bet under the total in SETH LUGO starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.3, money line=-116. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was LUGO's team 2.7, Opponents 2.3.
Bet under the total in SETH LUGO starts as an underdog of +125 to +175.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.3, money line=-116. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was LUGO's team 2.7, Opponents 2.3.
Bet under the total in SETH LUGO starts vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 21-6 (78%) with an average over/under of 8.2, money line=-113. (+14.4 unit$, ROI=48.5%).
The average score of these games was LUGO's team 3.8, Opponents 2.9.
Bet under the total in SETH LUGO starts vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 20-6 (77%) with an average over/under of 8.2, money line=-112. (+13.4 unit$, ROI=46.9%).
The average score of these games was LUGO's team 4.1, Opponents 2.7.
Athletics at Texas - Thursday, 05/01/2025 2:35 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in TYLER MAHLE starts when the total is 8 to 8.5.
The Under's record since the 2023 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.3, money line=-111. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=77.9%).
The average score of these games was MAHLE's team 2.6, Opponents 3.1.
Bet under the total in TYLER MAHLE starts when the total is 8.5 to 10.
The Under's record since the 2023 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.7, money line=-114. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=77.9%).
The average score of these games was MAHLE's team 2.9, Opponents 3.0.
Bet under the total in JEFFREY SPRINGS starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game.
The Under's record in his career: 13-3 (81%) with an average over/under of 7.5, money line=-113. (+9.7 unit$, ROI=51.9%).
The average score of these games was SPRINGS' team 3.2, Opponents 2.7.
Boston at Toronto - Thursday, 05/01/2025 7:07 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in TANNER HOUCK away starts in May games.
The Under's record in his career: 5-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 8.4, money line=+100. (+5.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%).
The average score of these games was HOUCK's team 2.2, Opponents 3.4.
Colorado at San Francisco - Thursday, 05/01/2025 9:45 PM - Matchup
Trends Favoring Under
Bet under the total in KYLE FREELAND starts on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5.
The Under's record in his career: 16-4 (80%) with an average over/under of 7.4, money line=-113. (+11.6 unit$, ROI=50.2%).
The average score of these games was FREELAND's team 2.4, Opponents 3.3.
Bet under the total in KYLE FREELAND starts as a road underdog of +150 or more.
The Under's record in his career: 40-17 (70%) with an average over/under of 8.3, money line=-111. (+21.3 unit$, ROI=32.3%).
The average score of these games was FREELAND's team 2.5, Opponents 4.2.
Glossary of Terms

Description: Provides context or specific conditions under which the team’s performance is being analyzed (e.g., "against NFC South division opponents").

ATS (Against the Spread): Indicates the team's win-loss record against the point spread. A record of 0-0 means the team has not covered or failed to cover the spread in any games under the specific trend.

O/U (Over/Under): Refers to the team's win-loss record in relation to the total points or runs line set by sportsbooks. "O/U" indicates whether the total points scored in the game were over or under the set line.

W-L (Win-Loss): The team's win-loss record for the specified trend or condition (e.g., as an underdog, in road games).

ML (Money Line): The win-loss record of the team on the money line, reflecting outright wins and losses without considering the point spread.

Game: Indicates performance over the entire game, as opposed to just a portion such as the first half.

1st Half: Indicates the team's performance specifically during the first half of the game, including ATS, O/U, and W-L records.

All Games: Refers to trends and records across all games played during the season, not limited to home or away games.

Road Games: Refers to trends and records specifically for games played away from the team’s home venue.

Trend: A historical pattern based on past betting results for a team, coach, or situation.

ATS (Against the Spread): A record of a team's performance relative to the point spread set by oddsmakers.

ML (Money Line): A record of a team's straight-up performance without consideration of the point spread.

O/U (Over/Under): A record of games going over or under the total points line set by oddsmakers.

1H ATS (1st Half Against the Spread): A record of a team's performance against the point spread for the first half only.

1H O/U (1st Half Over/Under): A record of a team’s first-half games going over or under the total first-half points line.

Betting Statistics

ROI (Return on Investment): A measure of profitability expressed as a percentage, showing how much profit was made per unit wagered.

Unit$: A measure of profit or loss in terms of betting units. A positive value indicates profit, while a negative value indicates loss.

Situational Trends

After a Win/Loss: Indicates how a team or coach performs in games following a win or loss.

Conference Game: A matchup between teams from the same conference.

Non-Conference Game: A matchup between teams from different conferences.

Home/Away Record: Performance records based on whether a team plays at home or on the road.

Neutral Site: A game played at a location that is not the home court of either team.

Performance-Based Trends

Revenging a Loss: A record of how a team performs when facing an opponent that previously defeated them.

Playing with Rest: Performance in games following a certain number of days of rest.

Off a High-Scoring Game: A trend based on performance in games following a game in which the team scored a large number of points.

After a Close Win/Loss: A trend measuring performance following a game decided by a small margin.

Coach-Based Trends

Coach ATS Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams against the spread.

Coach ML Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams in straight-up wins and losses.

Coach O/U Record: The historical record of a coach’s teams in relation to the total points line.

Team-Based Trends

Team ATS Record: The historical record of the team against the spread.

Team ML Record: The historical record of the team in straight-up wins and losses.

Team O/U Record: The historical record of the team in relation to the total points line.